Week 8 Plays, Fades & Stacks

With Kerryon Johnson being placed on IR, it looks as if Ty Johnson will be the lead
back in Detroit. At $4,900, Ty Johnson will probably be one of the most-owned
value plays on the Week 8 slate. 

Apparently, the NFL decided that THIS week was the trade deadline.

A handful of trades went down. Not that we care about all of them, but some have fantasy impact, and we can't overlook them.

Trades the matter:

• Momammed Sanu to the Patriots: Not only does Sanu get a bit of an upgrade heading to New England and having Tom Brady as his quarterback, but it likely tells us a little something about another wideout in New England. If the Pats felt the overwhelming need to give up a second-round pick for Sanu, the outlook for Josh Gordon is probably worse than originally anticipated. *Update: Gordon was placed on IR and may be waived by the Patriots. 
• Emmanuel Sanders to the 49ers: I tweeted out yesterday that I never thought I'd say a receiver leaving a Joe Flacco-led team would be a downgrade to their value. But here we are. Yes, Sanders goes to a 49ers team that doesn't have a true No. 1, so he'll likely slide right into that role. The only problem? The No. 1 role on that offense is shaky at best. They're a run-heavy team that doesn't utilize their receivers the way most teams do. It does, however, signify the Broncos freeing DaeSean Hamilton ($3,300 on DraftKings). Granted, he still has Flacco throwing him the ball, but he should see his snaps and target share increase. He'll be an interesting value play this week against Indianapolis.

Some injuries of significance: 

• Kerryon Johnson on IR: Well, that escalated quickly. Johnson went from week-to-week, to will miss some time, to being placed on IR. This all but signifies the end of the road for Johnson this season, and DraftKings tried to price up backup Ty Johnson ($4,900) without knowing the full diagnosis. Ty Johnson will provide some salary relief this week, but I'm not entirely sold on locking him into lineups just yet. J.D. McKissic got more work than Ty Johnson in the second half against Minnesota. It'll be interesting to monitor going forward. However, I fully expect the Lions to do Lions things and bring in another running back to further muddy things -- I'm looking at you C.J. Anderson.
• Will Fuller: We do this EVERY year. Fuller goes absolutely bananas and then finds himself missing weeks on end after injuring his hamstring. Death, taxes and Will Fuller injured or on IR. The guy the Texans traded for just before Week 1, Kenny Stills, will slot in while he's out. Stills and Fuller hold a lot of similar traits on the field -- they both run real fast, real straight. The Fuller role came with a 21 percent target share and just over 700 air yards, so if Stills is sliding into that role, expect some of the same. Temper those expectations a little, but be confident in the fact that stills does have a 13.2 ADOT on the season already. He's priced at $4,700 this week against Oakland, which has allowed the most plays of 20-yards or longer.   

The Plays

Todd Gurley $7,400 (vs. Cincinnati)*

When it comes to touting Gurley as one of the best overall running back plays, I leave it to the majestic musical virtuoso Staind to say it for me, "It's been a while." It's not so much about Gurley returning to the incredible levels of production form a year ago, it's more a play against the dreadful Bengals defense. Cincinnati is getting straight gashed by running backs this season to the tune of 127.5 rushing yards and 59 receiving yards per game, and have allowed 10 total touchdowns to backs. Gurley has 33 carries over his last two games, and might even see a few more targets than usual against a Bengals defense that allows six receptions a game to opposing backs.  

Austin Ekeler $5,900 (at Chicago)

Ekeler hasn't been bothered much by Melvin Gordon rejoining the Chargers backfield after his four-week absence. Yes, he's getting about one-third of the carries he was prior to Gordon, but he doesn't NEED carries to be effective. Ekeler's racked up 25 catches on 28 targets in the three games with Gordon, and that's all he needs to be a fantasy-viable option. His 477 yards after catch leads the NFL -- and for some reference, the next closest player is Christian McCaffrey ... and he's more than 170 behind Ekeler. Translation: he's really, really good. The matchup against the Bears doesn't concern me whatsoever. Let me clue you in on a little secret: the Bears' defense against running backs ... It's not good. The Bears more running-back targets than any team in the league, and surrender the second-most receptions. All positives for Ekeler. 

Kenny Golladay $6,400 (vs. NY Giants)

Golladay put up a dud, while teammate Marvin Jones caught four -- yes, FOUR -- touchdowns against the Vikings. The two targets he saw in that game is an obvious outlier, and the absolute floor of his likely range of outcomes. Golladay has at least eight targets in every game this season outside of Week 7 (and nine in each of his previous two). The injury to Kerryon Johnson will likely help the Lions lean more on the passing attack, which might bump up Golladay's targets by one or two per game. A few more looks for a guy that is No. 7 in the league in air yards and has the fourth-highest ADOT of those Top 7 air yards leaders is a plus. This week's matchup against the Giants, who allow the second-most pass plays of 20 yards or longer -- and are tied for third in pass plays of 40-plus yards -- this is a perfect bounce-back spot for Golladay ... and likely at decreased ownership. 

The Fades 

QB

Tom Brady $6,600 (vs. Cleveland)
Matt Ryan $6,000 (vs. Seattle)
Jimmy Garoppolo $5,700 (vs. Carolina)
Carson Wentz $5,600 (at Buffalo)
Sam Darnold $5,500 (at Jacksonville) 👻👻👻

RB

Christian McCaffrey $9,200 (at San Francisco) ... can't believe I'm saying this
Nick Chubb $6,600 (at New England)
David Johnson $6,400 (at New Orleans)
Derrick Henry $6,000 (vs. Tampa Bay)
Tevin Coleman $5,000 (vs. Carolina)

WR

Keenan Allen $6,400 (at Chicago)
Allen Robinson $6,000 (vs. LA Chargers)
Tyrell Williams $5,500 (at Houston)
Larry Fitzgerald $5,400 (at New Orleans)
DJ Moore $4,900 (at San Francisco)
Emmanuel Sanders $4,600 (vs. Carolina)
Auden Tate $4,200 (vs. LA Rams) *

TE

George Kittle $6,500 (vs. Carolina)
Zach Ertz $5,100 (at Buffalo)
Greg Olsen $3,700 (at San Francisco)

* - Denotes London game

Stack 'Em Up

Deshaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins, Kenny Stills ($19,900)

Oooooo weeeeee! That's an expensive trio to stack up. I like it, though. Not only for the glaring upside it has to erupt for a slate-breaking score, but because it will also force you to be different in other areas of your lineup. As we discussed earlier, with Fuller out, it frees up 21 percent of the targets, so they're likely to be dispersed between Hopkins and Stills. With Oakland's proven inability to defend the deep pass, the opportunity for splash plays really entices me.

Run It Back: We saw last week what happens when Tyrell Williams isn't on the field for the Raiders -- it forces them to funnel even MORE targets to Darren Waller ($5,900). I obviously think they'll be trailing and Waller is their lone option in the passing game. So if they're looking to keep up, he's going to get peppered.

Matthew Stafford, Kenny Golladay ($12,500)

I absolutely LOVE Stafford and Golladay this week against the Giants. The loss of Kerryon Johnson to this offense isn't going to be a a knee-capper. The Lions were already a pass-heavy offense that was taking deep shots, so more of that should be expected. Golladay is the one constant in this offense, so while people are flocking to Marvin Jones after his ridiculous touchdown output last week, Golladay and Stafford are the route to go here. I wouldn't even mind zigging and adding J.D. McKissic in if we believe everyone is zagging to Ty Johnson. Or just fade the running back situation completely.

Run It Back: It doesn't take a genius to tell you to play Saquon Barkley, and a genius I am not. So, play Barkley. His price is quite lofty at $8,900, and he might be chalk if people are fading Christian McCaffrey because of the matchup against San Fran. After seeing Barkley return and play a full game coming off that injury, I'm more willing to fork over the bucks for him.

Jameis Winston, Mike Evans, O.J. Howard ($16,300)

Old reliable. Well, not so reliable, because it's blown up in my face more often than not. One of the things we know about stacks are that they're volatile, and the Bucs, well, they embody that -- actually, it's really just Winston who is so volatile, but who's counting? Coming off a six-turnover game AND playing AT Tennessee, Winston's ownership will be virtually non-existent. Generally, when a QB's ownership is low, their pass-catchers are as well. Tennessee's defense is always regarded as being among the best in the league, but their pass defense has been sneaky bad, ranking 23rd in pass defense DVOA. With an already messy running game, Tampa won't be able to get much going against the league's No. 3-ranked run defense DVOA, so the way to beating Tennessee is through the air. Evans ($6,600) is again cheaper than Chris Godwin ($7,100), and we know what happened the last time this was a thing. Evans is No. 2 in the league in air yards and is still getting a 25 percent target share. He's who I'm pairing with Winston, and I'm even throwing in Howard. The team has said they want to get him more involved, and the Titans are 26th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends per game.

Run It Back: Tampa's run defense DVOA is No. 1 in the league, so Derrick Henry is out of the question -- a definite fade. So who is the play? A.J. Brown ($4,100). We got our first taste of the Tannehill-led Titans, and it looked good for Brown. Granted, it's a small sample, but he received 27 percent of the target share, and he caught six of his eight passes. He's shown the ability to break a long play or two this season, with longs of 51 and 55 yards already. This game has a 45.5 game total, but it wouldn't be surprising to see it hit the over. In the end, I'd likely bring it back with Brown, but I'd be OK just running the Winston-Evans-Howard stack, or even Winston-Evans-Godwin and using the Titans DST as the lone bring-back option. As we've seen, Winston is no stranger to turning it over, and with turnovers come opportunities for touchdowns. It's thin, but it's an option.

-- By Nathan Joyce

@nd_joyce