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Chris Carson has the perfect storm to make him one of the best plays on the entire DFS slate in Week 1.
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Fast forward to, well, right now, and we're sitting with only ONE of those being legalized. Not sure if you noticed, but the NFL season started Thursday. Way to go, Iowa. Or DraftKings. Or government.
I don't know who the hell to blame, so I'll blame them all.
TRIGGERED!
Breathe in. Breathe out. Breathe in. Breathe out.
Okay. We're good now. ... Still triggered. But good enough to move on.
You came here for the DFS plays -- though I'm not sure what the actual F you're doing listening to me -- so let's outline how this ditty is going down each week.
How it's going to work
I'm going to tell you who to pick in DFS, you're going to win money every week and it's going to be as simple as that.
If you didn't pick up the sarcasm there, do us both a favor and stop reading. It'll save me a lot of hassle from hearing the "your picks suck, bro," "I followed your advice and lost all my money" and "I thought you were good at this, man" on Facebook and Twitter.
That you? If so, figure it out, pal. It ain't that easy.
But this is how it's going to go.
Each week, I'll give you a handful of DFS plays that I feel are worth noting. Whether it be based on raw points projected, point-per-dollar, low-owned or full-on fades.
Fair warning: Chalk ... yeah, not my thing. So if you're looking for someone to tell you to play Christian McCaffrey, Ezekiel Elliott, Julio Jones and DeAndre Hopkins each week, there are plenty of DFS articles across the interwebs for you to check out.
For the purposes of this column, I'll be using DraftKings pricing and scoring (full PPR, bonuses, etc.) because, well, DK is the best DFS site. And we'll be discussing ONLY main-slate plays. That takes out Thursday-, Sunday- and Monday-night games. JUST the games from the noon and 3:25 p.m. kickoffs ... and, yes, that's central time.
Got it? Good. Moving on.
The Plays. LFG.
Leonard Fournette, $6,100 (vs. Kansas City)
It's no doubt that Fournette is a polarizing player in the fantasy world. After shutting himself down for some games, getting suspended and only playing in eight games last season, it's safe to say, he's burned A LOT of people. That's part of what makes him a great play this week.
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With Alfred Blue out for the year, T.J. Yeldon out of town and no one
of immediate worry backing him up, Leonard Fournette seems to be in line for ALL the work against Kansas City. |
Chris Carson, $5,700 (vs. Cincinnati)
We're on to Cincinnati. No. Literally, we are. What team finished directly behind the Chiefs in points surrendered to running backs in 2018? If you guessed anyone but the Bengals, what the hell, man? I teed it up perfectly for you. Cincy struggled mightily in stopping much of anything out of the backfield last year. Sure, that's partially due to being awful and teams just salting away wins on them. But guess what? They're juuust as bad this year. The Seahawks are sitting even with the Philadelphia Eagles as the biggest favorites in Week 1 (-10 at home), which should mean a bevy of touches for Carson. In the five games where Carson got more than 20 carries -- seems likely he'll get at least that many this week -- a season ago, he averaged a shade over 106 yards and scored 6 touchdowns. The Bengals? Yeah, they allowed 114.5 rushing yards per game to opposing backs. So in a game where a run-heavy team is at home, facing a horrible defense and are heavy favorites, all the boxes are checked. Not to mention, if you believe what Seahawks coach Pete Carroll preached this offseason -- god, I love coach speak -- about getting Carson more involved in the passing game, this could be a spot where Carson goes absolutely off.
Tevin Coleman, $5,000 (at Tampa Bay)
Apparently, I love all the mid-range running backs this week and will have a lineup solely consisting of guys in the $5-$6K range. I mean, if DraftKings would let me ... I'd do it. The 49ers-Buccaneers total is the biggest riser since game totals were announced (+1.5 points, 50.5 total). Undoubtedly, this is going to be one of the most-targeted games on the slate, and rightfully so. But what if I told you, Coleman is the piece of this game that most people will overlook? Well, I am. I am telling you that. Everyone will be flocking to George Kittle and Matt Breida from the San Fran side, and Jameis Winston, Mike Evans, O.J. Howard and Chris Godwin (spoiler alert, more to come on him later ... sorry 'bout it) from the Tampa side. A report surfaced a few days ago that listed Breida as the starter for the 49ers, which will do nothing but help suppress Coleman's ownership. We've seen Coleman in a Kyle Shanahan-led offense before, and it was extremely productive. Remember, when everyone was clamoring for him to supplant Devonta Freeman in Atlanta? Mmhmm. I do. Yes, Breida is going to be involved, but I believe Coleman will find his way to more touches. In a game with a total this high, finding a lower-owned guy to get a piece of the action is the play.
You're right if you're saying Godwin likely won't get the redzone looks Evans will. Can't argue that. But during the preseason -- good god, I hate myself a little for referencing this -- he was getting usage that mirrored some of the best fantasy wideouts we've seen before. He should get work, and could be first in line to soak up a majority of the 105 targets left behind from Adam Humphries' departure. Godwin will likely do most of his damage out of the slot, but still managed an ADOT of 11.9 yards in 2018 (for reference, that's a higher ADOT than Antonio Brown, Davante Adams and T.Y. Hilton). If this game goes according to plan, points shouldn't be an issue. And an even better nugget? The 49ers allowed the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers last season, and nearly two touchdowns per game (1.69; .19 more than the next-closest team).
Generally, you're going to have to pay up; at least a little bit. But other times, the heavens open up and you're left saying "damn, did you see the price of ________? That's a steal!" Fill in that blank with Henry this week. I mean, for Pete's sake, Eric Ebron is priced above Henry. Tsk, tsk, DraftKings. The matchup data isn't as salivating as the previous plays, but even if Henry isn't playing against a bunch of jabronies, he's still worth a play. He's finally back and healthy -- hopefully -- and the corpse that was Antonio Gates will no longer be running routes in the redzone and pilfering touchdowns. Philip Rivers LOVES to target his tight ends near the endzone and in 23 career starts, Henry has 12 TDs. That's basically one every other game. #Math. Now, keeping that pace up might be difficult, but the path to that production is there, especially with Melvin Gordon not reporting. We're not sure how Austin Ekeler or Justin Jackson are going to be in goal-to-go situations, and Keenan Allen isn't your prototypical redzone threat. The only other big-body guy Henry has to compete with is Mike Williams. With good touchdown equity on a week-to-week basis and the No. 25-ranked defense against the tight end, I LOVE Henry at this price.
Chris Godwin, $6,200 (vs. San Francisco)
As we touched on previously, this San Fran-Tampa game carries a hefty game total, so let's get some more pieces. Godwin might be the most-owned receiver from this game, but his $1,700 discount from No. 1 WR Mike Evans is what makes this appealing. |
Chris Godwin's discounted price tag from Mike Evans, paired with his
increased role in the Bucs offense has him drawing a lot of attention in this Week 1 matchup against the San Francisco 49ers. |
Hunter Henry, $3,900 (vs. Indianapolis)
If you've followed anything I've contributed to the For Fantasy Sake show -- and if you haven't, you're doing fantasy wrong -- you know I'm a big believer that tight end is as crucial a position to win each week as any. The drop off from the Big 5 (Kelce, Zach Ertz, Kittle, Howard and Henry) is massive, so finding a way to utilize one of those guys each week is a priority for me. |
He's finally healthy AND he's only $3,900. Why WOULDN'T you play
Hunter Henry this week? |
Stack 'Em Up
Jimmy Garropolo, George Kittle, Marquise Goodwin ($16,400 combined)
Beat. The. Dead. Horse. Of course, this game is going to be stacked up every which way.
Most of which will come from the Tampa Bay side. Everyone is in love with the Buccs offense.
One of the best leverage spots would be to find a way to attack this game and still get a piece, but do it differently. Nearly all the SF-TB stacks will include Winston at QB, a combo of Evans and Godwin and then Howard at TE. Instead, try correlating with an lesser-owned -- and cheaper -- Garropolo at QB, eat some chalk with Kittle and -- this is the hard part -- find one of the Niners receivers to pair him with. Goodwin would be my choice for two reasons. He's got game-breaking ability and is a a $1,400 savings from Dante Pettis.
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Stack up George Kittle with Jimmy Garropolo and Marquise Goodwin to get
a piece of that should-be-shootout in Tampa Bay.
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Run It Back: Correlate your lineup even more and bring it back with Howard from the other side. He'll likely be the lowest owned of the big Tampa Bay plays and the idea of rolling a two-TE lineup scares most people.
Nick Foles, Leonard Fournette, DeDe Westbrook ($16,200 combined)
If you've learned anything from this column, it's that Vegas odds and game totals are incredibly important in determining which plays to make in DFS. If you've learned anything else? It's that giving the plays that most people are going to make, ain't my thing. The Chiefs-Jags total is BIG. Most people will see that and gravitate toward stacking Chiefs. Let's go the other way. Fournette was discussed earlier, and no matter which way this game goes, he's going to be involved. So, let's say the script goes to plan and the Chiefs put the Jags in a hole. The Nick-Foles-to-Dede-Westbrook connection seems like the logical play. His market share of the targets should be greater than anyone's on the Jags, especially with Marqise Lee still uncertain for Week 1. Westbrook has looked GREAT so far this offseason and against a shoddy Chiefs secondary, he could get loose more than once and have a big day.
Run It Back: The chalk from the KC side is, obvs, Patrick Mahomes, Kelce and Tyreek Hill, so you won't differentiate your lineups much by just tossing one of those guys in. Instead, look to a guy like Sammy Watkins. He won't break the bank at the $5,000 tag he brings and is healthy -- I mean, it's Week 1, this may be the only time you get to use him. In the games he's actually played in this Chiefs offense, he's been electric, and the four-catch, 120-yard, two-TD game isn't out of the question.
Cam Newton, Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore ($20,800 combined)
This Rams-Panthers game has an under-the-radar total of 49.5, and the Panthers are only 2-point dogs at home. If Vegas thinks this is going to be close, I have to trust it.
After all, those fine establishments weren't built on Vegas being wrong. Since I'm a Jared Goff hater, there's no way I'll be on the Rams side of a stack. Plus, it's hard to nail down which of the three receivers is going to go off from week to week. The Panthers, however, are somewhat easy to predict. We know that McCaffrey is going to get a TON of work both in the rushing and receiving game. We know Newton is going to be dropping back and more than willing to heave YOLO balls, and has rushing upside as well. Between Newton and McCaffrey, you're obtaining all the rushing touchdown equity. The only thing left to figure out is ... who the other piece of the puzzle will be. With the hype train at capacity on Curtis Samuel, it seems everyone has forgotten about Moore. He's the clear No. 1 in Carolina and has big-play upside. It's a bit of an expensive stack, but the price should help keep ownership down.
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Pairing Cam Newton and Christian McCaffrey is never a bad strategy. But add
in D.J. Moore this week and we could be talking some serious cash. |
Run It Back: If you're feeling really frisky, running it back with a contrarian play like Todd Gurley could be THE PLAY. For all we know, he's going to be as healthy as he will be all season in Week 1, and if there's a player that's most likely to score three touchdowns on this slate, it's Gurley. He's shown it to us before. Adding his salary in takes you to $28,700, and only $4,260 per position for the remaining five slots, but Week 1 offers plenty of value. So if you're willing to take the risk, I think it's worth a shot.
-- By Nathan Joyce
@nd_joyce
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