Week 6 DraftKings Picks, Fades & Stacks

George Kittle is carrying a $5,200 price tag coming into Week 6, which is
just TOO cheap. He's going to be chalky, but he's a damn good play. 

Will Fuller week happened.

So, you -- and basically everyone else playing DraftKings -- got a piece of that 50-burger he tossed up.

Scores were crazy. Some of my lineups hit solidly in the 200s and didn't return much. It felt like every bit of the chalk hit last week, which is bound to happen from time to time throughout the course of a 17-week season, I guess.

There is a benefit to come out of weeks like Week 6, though. The chalk donkeys will continue to chase the chalk and use the "this guy went off last week, so I have to play him again."

And another golden nugget: the game log watchers will thumb through the DK player pool and see the dud games put up by guys like Alvin Kamara and refuse to click the plus sign next to their name.

Take advantage of those people who will fully fade the guys coming off bad weeks, and use them as a way to get lower ownership on players who have ceiling outcomes that could win you the slate.

The Plays  

Alvin Kamara, RB, $8,000 (at Jacksonville)

As I mentioned previously, guys like Kamara provide slate-winning ceilings and are capable of putting up 40 any given time they take the field. He went absolutely bonkers against Seattle in Week 3 in the Saints' first game sans Drew Brees, but since then has been underwhelming considering the price tag associated with him. The Saints have given him a bump in carries (16, 17, 16) in the weeks with Teddy Bridgewater under center, and has remained a prime target in the passing game. In those three games with Bridgewater, Kamara has received no fewer than 20 touches (25, 20 and 23, respectively). The Saints get the Jags this weekend, who are allowing more than six targets and four receptions per game to opposing backs. With most people likely to flock to Michael Thomas from the Saints' offense, this is a key spot for decreased ownership in a spot where Kamara could legitimately get off. 

George Kittle, TE, $5,200 (at LA Rams)

Too cheap. It's as simple as that. Well, there is actually more. We know Kittle as one of the Big 3 tight ends, but he's yet to have the eruption game we became accustomed to seeing a year ago. In the Monday night game, he came alive with six catches on eight targets for 70 yards and FINALLY got his first touchdown. He's been muddled on the wrong side of TD variance this season -- having a few touchdowns taken off the board by penalty -- and should be due for some regression to the TD mean. The Rams don't exactly jump off the page as a prime matchup for tight ends, but he leads the 49ers team in market share of targets at 25 percent. The next closest player? Deebo Samuel at 15 percent. Kittle's been getting the looks in the Niners offense, and his .58 WOPR leads the league at the tight end position. His price tag alone makes him a good play, as it doesn't correlate with his talent. He might be chalky this week, but he's well worth a play.  

Odell Beckham Jr., WR, $6,800 (vs. Seattle)

There's no other way to start this blurb than "ooof." It's been rough sledding to date for OBJ and the Browns offense. It just ... hasn't looked pretty at all. Save for the Week 2 game against the god awful Jets, Beckham has reached double-digit points just twice -- and it was 14.1 and 11.6. Like I said, not pretty. I'll use a quote from the Michael Thomas blurb from last week's column. "He's still Odell Beckham Jr." His talent is still elite. He's still capable of making plays literally no one else in the NFL can make but him. Beckham is No. 11 in the NFL in air yards and No. 9 in WOPR, two key stats used in predicting opportunity and production of receivers. The only thing that concerns me is the targets have dropped each week since Week 2 -- 10, nine, seven, six. After the Week 5 island game debacle, I assume ownership will be depressed despite his price drop (he started the season at $8,100). He's worth a shot in GPPs based solely on talent-per-dollar pricing. 

The Fades  

QB

Deshaun Watson $6,700

Dak Prescott $6,200

Carson Wentz $6,000

RB

David Johnson $7,600

Todd Gurley $6,200

Derrick Henry $6,100

Matt Breida $5,100

Adrian Peterson $4,500

WR

Sammy Watkins $6,200

Will Fuller $6,000

Courtland Sutton $5,000

Auden Tate $4,500

Byron Pringle $3,500

TE

Zach Ertz $5,400

Gerald Everett $3,600

Jordan Akins $3,200

Darren Fells $3,100

The Lamar Jackson-Mark Andrews combination has been solid in 2019.
Throw in Mark Ingram and bring it back with Tyler Boyd on the other
side for an overlooked game stack that could get weird. 

Stack 'Em Up  

Jared Goff, Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods ($18,800)

It's become apparent that Jared Goff really only has eyes for Cooper Kupp. For good reason. The duo is dynamic. Kupp was peppered with 17 targets during last week's game -- I wish there was a way to write numerals in all caps to give it more emphasis. 17!!! There. That'll do. With Brandin Cooks uncertain as of right now because of a concussion, I really like Robert Woods to step up as the secondary option in this offense. I assume his market share of targets -- which he's second on the team in already -- will only go up if Cooks misses Week 6. Vegas has tagged this game with a 50.5 game total and a spread of only Rams -3.5. So, assuming that line is correct, they believe this game shoots out, and won't be totally lopsided. I like it. 

Run It Back: I obviously love running it back with George Kittle. If you're telling a story for how this game goes and why you've chosen it as one to game stack, it would be because you feel the Rams likely get out in front and the 49ers are forced to throw. In step Kittle and his massive target share. If you're truly trying to soak up every bit of this game, Tevin Coleman at his $4,400 price would provide you another piece of this game with good touchdown equity and alleviate some salary stress you may have. 

Lamar Jackson, Mark Ingram, Mark Andrews ($18,300)

You don't need me to tell you that Lamar Jackson can break any given DraftKings slate. He's proven that already in Weeks 1 and 2. This is what I've taken away from the Ravens so far this season: They absolutely destroy bad teams, and struggle against decent teams. The Bengals fall into the first category. Outside of Week 1, he's started to use his legs more, running an average of almost 12 times per game. Jackson only has one TD on the ground, so pairing him with Ingram gives you virtually all of the rushing touchdown equity, which bodes well considering the Bengals are allowing a tasty 1.2 rushing touchdowns per game. Throw in the likely low-owned Andrews (since everyone will be on Kittle, Austin Hooper or Everett) and his 23 percent market share of targets to complete the Ravens side of the stack. 

Run It Back: In the Bengals' first game without John Ross, Tyler Boyd garnered 14 targets. He's priced up near guys like Adam Thielen, Tyler Lockett, Larry Fitzgerald and Will Fuller, and I still feel like people will be going to Auden Tate once again. Boyd has shown us he's capable of putting up the big game. Don't be fooled by the popular "Ravens defense is good" stigma. They're not. 

Patrick Mahomes, Mecole Hardman, Travis Kelce ($19.800)

After seeing Mahomes struggle in that Sunday night island game against the Colts, I've convinced myself that we might get him at one of the lowest ownership spots on the entire season. However, I hear he's quite good. As is Travis Kelce. Though his box scores don't show the big-daddy games we think he puts up every week. But he's been REALLY good. His 481 air yards leads all tight ends in the NFL ... by almost 120 yards (Ertz is next closest with 367). If you're telling me I'm going to get low-owned Mahomes and low-owned Kelce, I'm taking that. And I'll sprinkle in some big-play Hardman. Especially if there's no Sammy Watkins and Tyreek Hill. 

Run It Back: Don't get too crazy cute here. Your lineup is going to be different just based on the $27,200 price alone of this four-player stack, so you can swallow a bit of likely chalk here in Hopkins. He's too good to be held down so long. I'm not saying he's due, but ... 

-- By Nathan Joyce

@nd_joyce