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DraftKings looks to be raising prices on players who put up big games or garner large ownership percentages,
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One of my favorite tweets about the, uh, less-than-rousing-to-say-the-least deadline came from ESPN's Field Yates.
A comprehensive recap of the NFL trade deadline:— Field Yates (@FieldYates) October 29, 2019
Sums it up perfectly.
It also jives with the excitement that is being exuded about this Week 9 DraftKings slate.
Don't believe me? Check the game totals put out by Vegas -- 40 percent of the slate has game totals of 41 or less, and only two games at 50 or more.
Games with 41 or less:
- Jets at Dolphins 41
- Redskins at Bills 37
- Titans at Panthers 41
- Browns at Broncos 39
Games with 50 or more:
- Lions at Raiders 50.5
- Buccaneers at Seahawks 51.5
If the yucky-game-total slate wasn't enough, it seems that DraftKings has continued its sharp pricing this season.
More guys have had their prices increase week after week, while the guys you'd assume would get at least get a slight decline, have remained the same. Also read as: there's very little value.
They're keeping pricing tight and making it increasingly more difficult for people to construct the builds that will take down tournaments.
A little news broke that has opened up a sliver of value:
- Brandon Allen ($4,100) will start for the Broncos at QB after Joe Flacco's mysterious neck injury popped up after criticizing the Broncos for not being "aggressive enough" on offense.
- Damien Williams ($4,000) might have reclaimed the starting role after LeSean McCoy was benched because of a fumble last week.
- Allen Lazard ($3,900) played the most snaps at receiver for the Packers and caught all five of his targets in Week 8 against Kansas City. If Davante Adams is out again, he might be someone we can look at to relieve some salary.
- Jaylen Samuels ($4,000) could be the lead back in Pittsburgh this weekend with James Conner getting banged up at the end of Monday's game against Miami. We've seen what Samuels can do, especially in PPR, when he plays with Conner out. Should Conner miss, Samuels at $4K is a great price. Mike Tomlin has already come out and said Conner doesn't need to practice to play, so this is news you need to follow throughout the week.
The Plays
Phillip Lindsay, RB, $5,300 (vs. Cleveland)
In a slate that we've already established is devoid of value, you can make a case that Lindsay is the best value on the slate. Lindsay's last four weeks have been relatively consistent in terms of carries (15, 15, 11, 14), averaging almost 14 per game. He's already flashed the ability to have ceiling games this season, putting up 29 against Green Bay and 27.7 against the Chargers. This week, the Browns roll into Denver carrying their 20th-ranked run defense DVOA, and are allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to running backs. With a quarterback in Brandon Allen who has as many career passing yards and touchdowns as I do, the Broncos are likely to be running the ball even more than usual. And on the off-chance they do pass the ball, it seems plausible that Lindsay would see at least a handful of looks considering his lack of experience and Cleveland's ability to rush the passer -- No. 6 in adjusted sack rate, per FootballOutsiders. At $5,300, I'm buying in on Lindsay for a little bit of savings in Week 9.
Dalvin Cook, RB, $9,500 (at Kansas City)
It's no secret how bad the Chiefs are at defending the run, and stopping opposing backs from catching passes out of the backfield. Cook is the workhorse for Minnesota, which has the second-highest rushing play percentage in the league. Granted, there won't be a Patrick Mahomes on the other side of the ball to keep the ball away from, but Mike Zimmer will be his usual oldschool self and try to pound the rock. Can't blame him in this game. If you exclude Weeks 6 and 7 (where he got two targets each game), Cook was getting more than six targets per game in Weeks 3 through 8. He's no longer underpriced like he was for so long this season, but even at $9,500, he's in a smash spot.
Robby Anderson, WR, $5,500 (at Miami)
I've been dying on the Robby Anderson hill for what feels like forever. But I'm finally going to get paid off this weekend, and I'm offering you a spot on the train as well. Did any of you watch the Monday Night Football game and see the debacle that was the Dolphins pass defense? Hands down, it's the worst in the league, and by a wide margin. Per pass defense DVOA, the Dolphins rank 32nd, and are 8 percent worse than the next-closest team -- Atlanta ... and experts agree you start EVERYONE against Atlanta. So, why is it any different against Miami? Anderson has 22 targets over his last three games, which, yes, is a small sample, but the sample is meaningful because it's the games he's played with Sam Darnold back. Ghosts and all. Miami has allowed 31 plays of 20-plus yards this season, and with stud corner Xavien Howard now out, this sets up for a prime time spot for good ole Robby A. He's a great tournament option this week.The Fades
QB
Josh Allen $6,500Carson Wentz $5,700
Ryan Tannehill $5,300
Kyle Allen $5,200
Baker Mayfield $5,100
RB
James Conner $7,600Chris Carson $7,200
Marlon Mack $6,300
David Montgomery $5,200
WR
Odell Beckham Jr. $6,600Terry McLaurin $6,200
Marquez Valdes-Scantling $5,600
Corey Davis $4,600
TE
Hunter Henry $6,000Jimmy Graham $4,300
T.J. Hockenson $3,700
Stack 'Em Up
Le'Veon Bell, Robby Anderson, Jets DST ($16,700)
It's a first this season! I'm actually giving a stack that doesn't involve Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers. All kidding aside, this truly is a first. It's the first time I've suggested stacking a team without playing their quarterback. Playing Sam Darnold is just something I can't stomach the thought of -- though I'm sure I've made far worse plays at QB than Darnold in my DFS career. Bell is coming off his worst performance as a Jet, scoring a mere 6.5 DraftKings points in Week 8 at Jacksonville. I expect a total 180 from him in Week 9 against Miami and their 31st-ranked run defense DVOA and sultry 141 rushing yards per game. I like the Bell-Jets DST correlation play here. We've seen Ryan Fitzpatrick be a fountain of fantasy points for defenses, and I'd expect more of the same this weekend. Find a QB to roll naked in this lineup.
Run It Back: While everyone will flock to the newly minted RB1 in Miami, Mark Walton, people will be overlooking DeVante Parker ($4,200). Foolsih move. The Jets are bleeding points to opposing fantasy WRs, and with Parker's big-play ability, it's likely he can pay off that low salary on just one catch. He's racked up 715 air yards this season and has an aDOT of 15. He's getting shots down the field, and the chances of him breaking a big one in this game seem better than other spots this season.
Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf ($20,300)
The Seahawks are notorious for trying to #EstablishTheRun at all costs. However, they're going to need to toss the game plan aside for the week. The Bucs are no joke against the run, ranking No. 1 in the league in rush defense DVOA. Seattle has arguably the most efficient passer in the NFL in Wilson, who can break a slate on his own. For as good as the Bucs are defending the run, they're awful at defending the pass. So, where does that lead us? Wilson and the pass-catchers Lockett and Metcalf. They're both in plus-matchups here against the woeful Bucs secondary. I'm fading Chris Carson this week and if I can find a way to make the Wilson-Lockett-Metcalf stack work, I'm definitely doing it.
Run It Back: Mike Evans went BONKERS last week. Just nuclear. It's a spot where he could do it again. After the eruption game, though, I'm going to bring it back with Chris Godwin this week, who is still more expensive than Evans but will probably see less -- with less being relative because I feel this might be one of the most-stacked games on the slate -- ownership. This Seattle secondary isn't the Seahawks Legion of Boom of old. The corpse that is Matt Schaub just threw for more than 450 yards against them. If he can do it, Jameis Winston definitely can -- but it'll come with six turnovers.
-- By Nathan Joyce
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