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| This about sums up the way I felt after forgetting to swap T.Y. Hilton out of my lineup that was about 30 points off from winning a GPP that would've been a $20,000 payday. |
I had a chance to win a GPP in Week 4. One of my few tournament lineups I played scored 200.8 points, and placed me 394th out of 297,265 entrants in the $250K First Down.
Not a great win, but it's usually not a HORRIBLE position to finish in like it was for me this weekend.
After the For Fantasy Sake live show -- 10-11:30 a.m. on QCSportsNet.com at Kavanaugh's Hilltop Bar & Grill ... #ShamelessPlug -- I was rushing home so my lovely significant other could get out the door to teach a one-on-one dance solo to one of her students.
During that very same For Fantasy Sake show -- did you see the links above? you need to see the links above -- we went through the gambit of actives and inactives. During that segment, we confirmed T.Y. Hilton was, in fact, out of their game against Oakland.
You can pretty much guess where this is going ...
Knowing he had an injury designation heading into the week, and likely meaning lower ownership, only made me like him more. However, once it was confirmed he was not going to play, my plan was swap him out of my lineup in the short time I had before lock.
In my mad dash home and immediately jumping into some house work once arriving, I whiffed on swapping Hilton out. My contrarian lineup that had both Nick Chubb and a sub-1-percent-owned Chris Godwin, and was entirely live to make a monster cash in a GPP was now ruined.
Yes. A rookie mistake.
A fish move. I have gills.
All are correct.
However, I share this with you because it's something we can all take a lesson from.
Now, for Week 5 ...
The Plays
David Johnson, RB, $7,500 (at Cincinnati)
Hallelujah! He does catch passes! We've been waiting for this kind of game from Johnson. He caught nine of his 11 targets in Week 4 against Seattle, and had 11 rushing attempts to boot. For those of you who struggle with simple math, that's 20 total touches. That's DJ of old workload. The jam-him-in workload DJ we played week in and week out just two years ago. This weekend's matchup can't get much better, heading to Cincinnati where the Bengals have been bleeding points to running backs all season. And with Christian Kirk likely looking as if he'll miss this matchup, it could mean even more work, especially in the passing game, for Johnson. For the workload and touchdown equity he has in this matchup, he's about $500 too cheap -- at least. He'll be popular, but he's a good play.
Aaron Jones, RB, $5,900 (at Dallas)
It took an injury to Jamaal Williams on the first play of the game to get Jones the biggest share of the snaps and workload he's seen in quite some time. Thankfully, it forced Matt LaFleur's hand into using Jones in more than just short-yardage situations. Jones has shown he's a capable pass-catcher when given the opportunity (12 catches on 15 targets so far this season). The status of Davante Adams is uncertain as of now, which should only help boost the number of total touches Jones could see. In a game that carries 45.5 game total and the possible workload Jones could be in for, $5,900 is just too cheap in my eyes.
Michael Thomas, WR, $6,600 (vs. Tampa Bay)
When the hell was the last time we saw Thomas below the $7,000 threshold? Yes, I'm very much aware who his quarterback is at this point in time. And trust me, I'm as big of a Teddy Two-Glove doubter as there is. But ... damn. 6,600? Really? He's still Michael Thomas. He's still talented. He can still make plays. This matchup? Nah. The Bucs don't scare me a bit. They're in the bottom 10 in the league of points allowed to wide receivers on the season. If there was ever a spot for Bridgewater to look the part of a competent quarterback, it's this week, and if you're not exploiting this price tag on Thomas in this matchup, you need to rethink your process.
The Fades
QB
Aaron Rodgers $6,000 (at Dallas)Daniel Jones $5,600 (vs. Minnesota)
Marcus Mariota $4,900 (vs. Buffalo)
RB
Melvin Gordon $7,000 (vs. Denver)
James Conner $6,200 (vs. Baltimore)
Wayne Gallman $5,400 (vs. Minnesota)
David Montgomery $5,200 (at Oakland ... in London)
Josh Jacobs $4,500 (vs. Chicago ... in London)
WR
Amari Cooper $6,800 (vs. Green Bay)
Sterling Shepard $5,800 (vs. Minnesota)
DJ Moore $5,200 (vs. Carolina)
Tyrell Williams $5,200 (vs. Chicago ... in London)
James Washington $4,400 (vs. Baltimore)
TE
Greg Olsen $4,000 (vs. Jacksonville)
Delanie Walker $3,800 (vs. Buffalo)
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| The Deshaun Watson-DeAndre Hopkins stack didn't come through last week, but I'm not shying away from going back to it once again. |
Stack 'Em Up
Deshaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller ($19,000)
Let's try this again. It didn't work last week. But ... this is the week. Right? ... Right? I'm growing a little bit more skeptical, but I am keeping the faith that both a consensus Top 4 QB and Top 3 WR can't be held down like this forever. The ceiling this trio provides is enormous. I'm enamored with the possibilities this stack provides. Especially now for Fuller with Kenny Stills dealing with a hamstring issue.
Run It Back: There are a ton of options. Most people who stack this game are going to try to load up Julio Jones as the way to run it back. That's never a bad option, but if you're looking for a lower-owned option to correlate with, give Calvin Ridley and Austin Hooper a look.
Kyler Murray, David Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald ($19,800)
Cincinnati is the cure-all for the fantasy flu, which it seems the Cardinals have acquired over the last few weeks. This matchup features two of the quicker teams in pace of play. The more plays, the better chance of fantasy yum yum going around. Not to mention, neither team knows how to play anything that's close to resembling defense.
Run It Back: Many people will be stacking the Cincy side of this game, and it'll likely be Andy Dalton, Tyler Boyd and Tyler Eifert. I really like Boyd in this matchup, but if you want to zig while everyone zags, give Auden Tate a look. He's garnered 16 targets over the last two weeks, and his $3,500 will free up some cash for you to spend up at another position.
Jameis Winston, Mike Evans, O.J. Howard ($17,200)
Just when you thought you couldn't trust Jameis Winston, he sucks you back in. And he's going to break a billion hearts this weekend. Well, trample all over mine. I'll take a swing. Everyone who WASN'T on Chris Godwin will be on him this weekend. So let's go with a Evans at WR and hope that the squeaky wheel game narrative comes through for O.J. Howard. Here's hoping Jameis doesn't go full Jameis on us and throw four picks and get benched by halftime.
Run It Back: Alvin Kamara has proven he doesn't need a good matchup to be a beast, but his price might be prohibitive in getting a lineup you love. I think his ownership will be lower than Michael Thomas', but both are good plays. If you like to live live with a little gamble and trust yourself to find some cheaper plays, try plugging in both with your Bucs stack.
-- By Nathan Joyce
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