Week 4 DraftKings Picks, Fades & Stacks

After a pair of tough matchups, it's looking like DeAndre Hopkins might come
in with lower ownership than we're used to seeing, which could be a prime
spot to jump on him in tournaments.  

The Plays

Kerryon Johnson, RB, $5,400 (vs. Kansas City)

Pick yourself up off the floor. I know recommending Johnson comes as a shock. For as much as I've been a nonbeliever, how can I suggest playing him? Well, DraftKings pricing makes this viable. Well, that and the juicy matchup with Kansas City. This game carries a 54.5 total, with the Lions implied for 24 points. So they're not huge underdogs and implied for some feeble total like the Dolphins and Jets. If the Lions have any chance of winning this game, it seems the best avenue to that would be keeping the ball on the ground, and that means a lot of Johnson. He received 20 carries against an impressive Philadelphia run defense. Granted, he didn't do much with the carries, but he GOT them. And that's what matters. Without bowling ball C.J. Anderson, it seems as if they're turning the reins over to Johnson, and if he can get involved in the passing game at least a LITTLE bit in this game, return on his $5,400 tag could be awesome.

Marlon Mack, RB, $6,100 (vs. Oakland)

This is getting freaky. First it was Kerryon Johnson, now it's Marlon Mack. Most of you are probably asking, "Who the hell are you, and what have you done with that schmuck Nathan who usually writes this column?" Full disclosure, sleep has been rarity in my household the last week, so there might be a legitimate explanation for this. The one legitimate thing we DO know, though, is that Indianapolis is apparently a partner with other experts Evan Silva and Adam Levitan, because they're captaining #TeamEstablishTheRun. The volume Mack receives in this offense entices me, especially with a woeful team like Oakland coming in -- and T.Y. Hilton might not play on top of all that. The Oakland defense has faced the fifth-most rushing attempts on the season, and is yielding almost 4.5 yards per carry. Now, Mack isn't the type of back to break off 50-yard runs for TDs, but if they're letting him pound the rock all game, there's a real chance he eclipses the 100-yard mark and has two TDs.

DeAndre Hopkins, WR, $7,700 (vs. Carolina)

It's been semi-tough sledding for Hopkins the last two weeks with matchups against the Chargers and Jaguars. Translation: Casey Heyward and Jaylen Ramsey. Two of the best corners in the NFL. He still received seven targets vs. the Jags, and eight against the Chargers, but only managed 107 total yards. Watson is ALWAYS looking for Hopkins, no matter how tough the matchup is. Now the matchup gets a bit easier against the Panthers, so going back to Hopkins -- who, let's not forget, is arguably the best WR in fantasy -- seems like a good move. Not only because of price, but because of ownership as well. It feels like after a couple of down weeks, the masses might be moving off him. And if we learned anything from last week -- ahem, you're welcome for Mike Evans, everyone -- buying low on a player can pay off significantly.

The Fades

QB

Tom Brady $6,600 (at Buffalo)

Matt Ryan $5,900 (vs. Tennessee) 

Baker Mayfield $5,800 (at Baltimore)

Josh Allen $5,600 (vs. New England)

RB

Todd Gurley $7,000 (vs. Tampa Bay)

LeSean McCoy $5,600 (at Detroit)

Sony Michel $5,500 (at Buffalo)

David Montgomery $5,300 (vs. Minnesota)

WR

Mike Evans $7,100 (at LA Rams)
Adam Thielen $6,600 (at Chicago)
Josh Gordon $5,900 (at Buffalo)
Allen Robinson $5,600 (vs. Minnesota)
Jarvis Landry $5,100 (at Baltimore)

TE

Mark Andrews $5,000 (vs. Cleveland)
Delanie Walker $4,800 (at Atlanta)
Jordan Akins $3,100 (vs. Carolina)

The Jared Goff-Cooper Kupp stack was great last week. But let's throw in a dash of Robert Woods
this week if you're feeling frisky in GPPs. It's volatile, but it's got upside. 

Stack 'Em Up

Russel Wilson, DK Metcalf, Will Dissly ($14,500)

Sometimes it can be hard to predict what Seahawks team is going to show up -- the run-heavy team or the ultra-efficient, Russ-Wilson-throwing-it-all-over team. I prefer the latter. Especially this week against the Cardinals. If you have't caught on through three weeks, here's the secret: play stacks against Arizona. The only issue with this stack is it might get a tad chalky. I do like the swerve from Tyler Lockett to DK Metcalf to create some leverage, but it's starting to look like everyone will be using Dissly this weekend. If you find out Dissly is going to be mega-chalk, it might be viable to pivot to a Wilson, Metcalf and Chris Carson stack. Or say screw it, and double up with Lockett and Metcalf, and hope that neither Dissly or Carson find the end zone.

Run It Back: The Cardinals offense looked a bit off last week, but I'm not dismayed. Damiere Byrd got injured, they cut Michael Crabtree and it's all lining up to mean even MORE targets for one of this column's favorites ... Christian Kirk. He and Larry Fitzgerald share the lead for market share of targets in Arizona, and I'm always going to lean the younger, more explosive player in that instance. I like Kirk again this week.

Matt Stafford, Kerryon Johnson, Kenny Golladay ($16,800)

Everyone knows about stacking the Chiefs. It seems like it's had a shot at winning GPPs week in and week out. And for good reason. But I'm really digging the Detroit side this week. No one ever wants to play Matt Stafford. I mean, come on, he's Matt Stafford. That doesn't get you in any pants-off mood. But the real key to this stack is Kenny Golladay. He's coming off a week where he was highly owned and had his stone worst game. I mean, it was awful -- and yes, I had a ton of him. Ownership is going to be drastically decreased this week, I believe. But it shouldn't. He's still getting 25 percent of the team's targets and 33 percent of the team's air yards ... and he got a $700 price decrease in arguably a BETTER matchup. All signs point to firing Golladay up again. 

Run It Back: Everyone has been clamoring over Mecole Hardman and DeMarcus Robinson, but where is little old Sammy Watkins? Oh, there is in. Right in the middle of my lineup. He's the sixth-highest priced receiver on the slate this week, and has had 10.9 and 11.4 points in his last two games, respectively. People are still going to be rolling with Hardman and Robinson, which leads to an obvious opportunity to get low ownership on a guy who, let's not forget, put up a 40-burger in Week 1. He's sixth in the LEAGUE in total market share of targets. He's still getting looks. He's due for a big week.   

Jared Goff, Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods ($18,900)

This stack is not for the faint of heart. It's bold. Borderline nuts. Especially considering what I think of Jared Goff. He looked great throwing to Kupp last week in a primetime game, so hopefully that won't inflate ownership. We know it can be tough playing Wheel of Rams Wide Receiver each week trying to figure out which one will go off. I think I've pinned it down this week -- so, obviously, I haven't. Kupp and his 30 percent market share of targets has to be included, but why Woods over Brandin Cooks for the other slot? Because I think of the remaining two, he'll be the lower-owned option. It seems like a get-in-before-he-goes-off scenario. Other than that, I got nothing. 

Run It Back: Jamies Winston scares me to death this week, which is just off the heels of me recommending him as part of my top stack a week ago. With Evans' big game coming along with that, it seems as if the tide has shifted a bit too much on Chris Godwin. He's now down to $6,000 -- a $900 decrease -- and should likely see some targets in a game I see the Bucs trailing. And likely trailing big. It's Godwin if you're running it back with anyone. 

By Nathan Joyce 

-- @nd_joyce