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| There's going to be a lot of this going on this Sunday in Dallas.Ezekiel Elliott gets to eat up the awful Miami defense, and it's going to be awesome for fantasy players. |
God bless you Patrick Mahomes and Demarcus Robinson.
And you, too, Pats DST.
We're not going for a long soliloquy, this week. We're going to get down to it.
The Plays
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, $8,900 (vs. Miami)
D-O-L-P-H-I-N-S ... what's that spell ...?
If you guessed Dolphins, your'e wrong. Clearly it spells fantasy yum yum. The dumpster fire that is the Miami Dolphins defense is just bleeding points to everyone. Somehow, they're not yielding the most fantasy goodness to opposing running backs, but I expect that to change after this week. They've yet to face a back like Zeke -- sorry Mark Ingram and the New England stable of backs. He's on another level. The Cowboys are 21-point favorites and implied to score an absurd 34.5 points. After two weeks now under his belt, it's fair to expect the Cowboys to #FreeElliott like they did last season. 20-plus carries is a lock, but with Michael Gallup and his team-leading 24 percent market share of the team's targets out for the next handful of weeks, there could be a few more targets coming Zeke's way. I hate the term "smash spot," but if there ever was one ...
Mike Evans, WR, $6,600 (vs. NY Giants)
Six catches and 85 yards through two games ain't gonna dismay me. It was reported Evans was dealing with a stomach bug in the previous weeks, too. Maybe he was nauseous because of how bad Jameis Winston looked throwing the ball ... ionno. What I do know is this: Mike Evans is now cheaper than Chris Godwin on DraftKings. I'm as big a Godwin lover as there is out there, but this should NOT happen. Evans still is getting his chances, he's just had a few things going against him. His 21 percent target share is still quite good -- and only going to increase -- but, the intriguing thing is his Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR), which is a weighted combination of the share of team targets and share of team air yards. His 58 percent leads the Bucs, as does his 18 aDOT. The shots are there, and they're coming in a big way this week against a lowly Giants defense.
Christian Kirk, WR, $5,000 (vs. Carolina)
It's a two-man show in Arizona. Old man Larry Fitzgerald is still garnering gobs of targets, but Kirk is coming in hot. Kirk put up a 20-point game last week against the Ravens (114 yards on six catches) and did so on eight targets. The Cardinals' new offense is predicated on running plays quickly, which leads to a lot of snaps. Kirk's 139 snaps through two weeks has him tied for third-most in the NFL. Also read as: OPPORTUNITY! And what produces fantasy points? Opportunity. Playing that many snaps in one of the fastest offenses in the NFL coupled with the looks he gets (203 air yards through two weeks) and this price tag ... I love Kirk this week.
Le'Veon Bell, RB, $7,000 (vs. New England)
I hate to attempt to glean too much information from any week in isolation, but I really liked what I saw from the Jets on Monday night. They FED Bell. And by fed, I mean FED! He had 31 -- 21 rushes and 10 catches -- touches. In a game they being stomped in. With a workload -- especially in the passing game -- like that, this $7,000 is criminal. It doesn't matter who the Jets are playing, if he's getting that much work, that's far too low of a price. After two weeks, the Patriots defense looks good, but they've played a woeful Pittsburgh team and an even worse Miami team. No offense to James Conner, but he isn't on Bell's level quite yet. Yes, the Jets are 23-point dogs, but they exemplified they're more than willing to just let it be the Bell Show Sam Darnold -- and now Trevor Semien -- out. How can we expect anything but more of the same with Luke Falk under center?
Zach Ertz, TE, $5,600 (vs. Detroit)
Attrition: The action or process of gradually reducing the strength or effectiveness of someone or something through sustained attack or pressure. Second definition: The Eagles pass-catching corps. DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffrey are both dinged up, as is backup tight end Dallas Goedert. So the Eagles are going to likely be rolling out Nelson Agholor, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside and Mack Hollins on the edges. Now, if you're Carson Wentz, who you trusting to haul in passes? Don't worry, I'll wait. It's Ertz. He was peppered last week with 16 targets once the injuries happened. I don't see it being much different. We know the muddy Philly backfield isn't producing touchdowns and they're implied for almost 26.75 points, so they have to come from somewhere. At a $1,400 discount from Travis Kelce 🐐, it's hard not to click Ertz's name.
The Fades
QB
Russel Wilson $6,300 (vs. New Orleans)
Cam Newton $6,000 (at Arizona)
Matt Ryan $5,700 (at Indianapolis)
RB
James Conner $6,400 (at San Francisco)
Mark Ingram $5,700 (at Kansas City)
Damien Williams $5,200 (vs. Baltimore)
Carlos Hyde $4,500 (at LA Chargers)
Phillip Lindsay $4,300 (at Green Bay)
WR
Michael Thomas $7,400 (at Seattle)
Julian Edelman $6,100 (vs. NY Jets)
Tyrell Williams $5,600 (at Minnesota)
John Ross III $5,100 (at Buffalo)
Marquise Goodwin $5,000 (vs. Pittsburgh)
TE
Darren Waller $4,100 (at Minnesota)
Eric Ebron $3,800 (at Indianapolis)
Jared Cook $3,800 (at Seattle)
Stack 'Em Up
Jameis Winston, Mike Evans/Chris Godwin, O.J. Howard ($15,800/$16,100)
This. Scares. Me. Why does my brain allow me to like this stack?!? Everyone was clamoring over how improved the Bucs offense was going to be and how they expected Winston to take big steps. Have we all just forgotten that? Winston was $6,600 against San Francisco in Week 1 and he's now $5,400 in what is arguably a much better matchup. Evans is far too cheap. O.J. Howard is down to $3,800. It's like buying stock. You buy when it's low. I'm not sure it gets much lower than this.
Run It Back: There are only two options here -- Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram. Whether you have the salary to afford Barkley is going to be your determining factor. You can never go wrong with playing him. He's matchup proof. Or, get frisky and play BOTH.
Kyler Murray, Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk ($15,900)
I've yet to have any Murray in my DFS lineups through two weeks, but I'm going for it this weekend. The sheer amount of plays Arizona is trying to run is worth investing in -- at least a little bit. Kirk and Fitzgerald are going to be the prime targets, and they're relatively cheap. I'm a smidge worried about not including David Johnson in this stack, so I might get weird and throw a Murray-Johnson-Kirk-Damiere Byrd stack together. Byrd is getting looks and can make some plays. Plus, he's minimum salary ($3,000) and it's a REVENGE game. You have to play him now.
Run It Back: Christian McCaffrey. Simple as that. He's going to get ALL the touches this week no matter if Cam is in or out. He's coming off the long week and rested up. Love this as a way to bring it back.
Carson Wentz, Nelson Agholor, Zach Ertz ($14,900)
Would you like me to wax poetic about Ertz again, or save you 30 seconds? I'm digging this whole game as a stack. The total is sitting at 47, but I definitely see a path for this baby to hit the over. Of the 25 passes Wentz completed in Week 2, 16 of them went to Ertz or Agholor. This could be a funnel forming right in front of our eyes. Agholor is $3,800, and if he would have caught that would-be-game-winning touchdown while streaking down the sideline, his price would be about $1,000 more. We have to take advantage of that.
Run It Back: I absolutely love both Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones Jr. in this game. I'm firing them both up and forming a game stack here. If you add both of them in with the Wentz-Ertz-Agholor stack, you're left with $5,875 per player with only four slots to fill. I'm rolling this out in at least two or three tournaments.
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