Week 2 DraftKings Picks, Fades & Stacks

Alvin Kamara is in a smash spot this weekend agains the Los Angeles Rams,
and, for my money, is likely to be the best play on the entire DraftKings slate.  

This is where the fun begins.

No one has had a month and a half to look at pricing, run model projections and research the slate like they had for Week 1.

It's back to the usual only-got-a-week-to-prepare guide. Don't get me wrong, that's definitely long enough to overthink and tinker your way into a trash lineup.

The single most important advice after a rough Week 1 is this:

Don't overhaul your process because you didn't find a green screen after just one week.

Think about the weird things that happened you would have never predicted:

• Lamar Jackson throwing 5 TDs and being the No. 1-scoring QB
• Jamies Winston & Cam Newton scoring less than Robert Griffin III
• Derrick Henry catching ONE pass for a 75-yard TD
• Sammy Watkins almost dropping a 50-burger
• T.J. Hockenson going absolutely off against Arizona (who is historically good against TEs)
• The whole Browns offense being a no-show
• Kirk Cousins throwing 10 passes & Atlanta being basically a $h!+ show on offense

That's a lot of things. Seven of them to be exact. And that's not even all of the wacky things that played out.

Yes, it's football; it's sports. Wacky things are going to happen. A lot. I get that. But often times, they're not compounding one on top of the other as they did last week.

So, trust yourself. Trust your projections. Trust your builds. Give it at least another two or three weeks before scrapping your plan and going back to the drawing board.

For those of you who may have missed it last week -- and if you did, shame on you for going anywhere but here for advice ... HIT THE SUBSCRIBE BUTTON -- this is how it works ...

We're going to break down a handful of plays that stand out (price, matchup, etc.) from THE MAIN SLATE ONLY.

The Plays

Alvin Kamara, RB,  $8,200 (@ LA Rams)

See Christian McCaffrey's game log from Week 1 against the Rams. 

OK. OK. Kamara is unlikely to totally mirror McCaffrey's game, but they're the same type of player. Kamara isn't the No. 1 option in New Orleans like McCaffrey is in Carolina, but he's the clear No. 2, with a precipitous drop off after him. Kamara racked up 20 total touches (13 rushes, seven receptions) and totaled 169 yards. The only thing he was missing was a touchdown. This Saints-Rams game has the highest over/under on the board at 54, and the Saints as three-point dogs. In a game that's looking like it'll be close -- and you know the Saints want revenge after the last year's NFC Championship game ended -- I fully expect Kamara to eat here. If you can find a better play on the entire slate, let me know. 

Giovani Bernard, RB, $5,300 (vs. San Francisco)

The value you're searching for could come in the form of Bernard. Joe Mixon has been hampered all week by an ankle issue. Mixon hasn't practiced as of Thursday, and if he misses Friday's practice, it's going to be hard to see him suiting up for Sunday's game. If that's the case, it's all systems go on Bernard. He was already getting most of the passing-down work, so when you throw in 15-20 carries on top of it, it's hard to turn down that volume at that price. In games Mixon has been out and Bernard has started, he's been a Top 20 running back -- each time. The 49ers allowed Ronald Jones to run for 5.8 yards per carry and allowed 63 yards receiving out of the backfield a week ago. Obviously, Bernard is in a different class of running back than Jones, so the spot seems great. It should be noted, though, if Mixon plays, your exposure to Bernard should be limited -- if any at all. 

JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, $7,500 (vs. Seattle)

Last week was just a throw-away game for all parties involved in the Steelers offense. They looked awful against the Patriots. I'm willing to disregard basically everything I saw. Bill Belichick is the king of scheming his way out of allowing the opposing team's best option beating him. However, this week ... the Steelers are at home and are getting a west-coast team traveling east for an early kickoff. Sure, it's Seattle, but this isn't the same Seattle defense we've seen in the past. I mean, come on, they just let Andy Dalton chuck it 51 times for more than 415 yards. Yikes. If we know one thing about Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers, it's that they're always more effective and explosive at home. After taking the Sunday-night island-game beating against the Pats, this seems like the spot where Pittsburgh comes out hunting for a 40-burger, and JuJu is the guy I seeing inflicting the most damage. Love him in tournaments this week.

DeDe Westbrook, WR, $5,400 (at Houston)

DeDe Westbrook was chalk last week, but he might be in an even
BETTER spot this week against a backup slot corner in Houston.
Fire him up!

It seemed like the whole DFS world was on Westbrook last week against the Chiefs. So, how will they react after the five-catch, 30-yard and a TD performance? Hopefully, he doesn't reach the ownership threshold he did in Week 1, because he's just as good of a play this week ... maybe better. I can hear you saying it now, "But the Texans have a good defense!" They don't. Did you see their defense against New Orleans on Monday? Stop. The Texans got lit up from the slot all night. So bad so that they cut their first-string slot corner and will be rolling their backup out full time. Now, let's play a game of Guess Where Westbrook Runs Most of His Routes? ... This is where you respond with, "the slot?" WE HAVE A WINNER! With a full week of Gardner Minshew practicing with the first-team offense, I'm firing Westbrook up again. 

Travis Kelce, TE, $7,300 (at Oakland)

🐐🐐🐐

Little explanation is needed here, but my job is to reinforce why you should probably just play Kelce in EVERY lineup this weekend. Kansas City rolls into Oakland a week after lighting up the Jags as 7.5-point favorites in a game carrying a 52 total. Obviously, Kelce is a good option any week because he's the best tight end in football. A few more factors play into this matchup, though. No. 1 being there will be no Tyreek Hill in this game. History has shown that when Hill is off the field, Kelce is the receiving option that sees the biggest uptick in targets and usage. Moreover, Kelce's feasted against Oakland in his career to the tune of 648 yards -- the only team he has more yards against is Denver. In his last two games, Kelce has combined for 16 catches, 201 yards and three touchdowns. Don't even blink. Just jam him in. 

The Fades

QB

Aaron Rodgers, $6,500 (vs Minnesota)

Russel Wilson $6,200 (at Pittsburgh)

Kyler Murray $5,400 (at Baltimore)

RB

Joe Mixon $6,500 (vs San Francisco)

Chris Carson $6,400 (at Pittsburgh)

Aaron Jones $5,400 (vs. Minnesota)

Any Bears RB (at Denver)

WR

Antonio Brown $7,000 (at Miami)

Kenny Golladay $6,600 (vs. LA Chargers)

Marquise Brown $5,000 (vs. Arizona)

TE

Jared Cook $4,700 (@ LA Rams)

T.J. Hockenson $3,000 (vs. LA Chargers)

Ben Roethlisberger and JuJu Smith-Schuster with one of the other two Pittsburgh wideouts is my 

favorite stack of the week. Home cookin' is never a bad thing for Big Ben and this Steelers 

offense. With the egg they laid against the Pats, they could be extremely low owned, too.  

Stack 'Em Up

Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Demarcus Robinson ($18,300 combined)

You could probably run some iteration of a Chiefs stack every week and be profitable -- they're that good. Everyone knows the big names on the KC offense, and a lot of times, they'll flock right to them. So how do you differentiate your stack to get some leverage on the field? You find the position that is most likely to have the biggest amount of variance, and find a lower-owned option. This weekend, while everyone is loading up on Sammy Watkins -- you're welcome if you played him last week -- and Mecole Hardman,  take a look at Demarcus Robinson. He's only $3,500 and is going to be drastically less owned than Watkins or Hardman, and he's shown he's capable of being productive in the past.

Run It Back: The lovely thing about correlating your stack with the opposing side of this game is that the Raiders haven't been priced up AT ALL. So, make it a full on onslaught and load up with Josh Jacobs and Darren Waller, and, if you're feeling it, Tyrell Williams (though he will likely be the mega chalk ... and Jacobs might, too, for that matter).

DeShaun Watson, Will Fuller, Duke Johnson ($16,900 combined)

I'm sure you're wondering, where the hell is DeAndre Hopkins in this stack? It's a valid question. But the point of stacking is to correlate your lineups and find some differentiation. The Jags have one of the corners that have been semi-able to keep Hopkins at bay. Jalen Ramsey hasn't locked Hopkins down per se, but he's been able to keep him from having those blow-up games we're accustomed to seeing. In step, Will Fuller. He's capable of getting behind any defense, and Watson isn't afraid to let the yolo ball go. I like Fuller to bounce back after a tough game against the Saints with most of the focus going to Hopkins. For some reason, I have a sneaking suspicion the Jags may be able to keep this competitive -- and maybe even win outright -- so I like the idea of Duke Johnson getting involved, too.

Run It Back: See above DeDe Westbrook blurb. All of that applies here. I also REALLY like Leonard Fournette again this week. He looked good in the work he got. He isn't overly expensive, so he's somewhat easy to fit in with this stack as well. I'm not sold on onslaughting this game like the KC-Oakland game, but definitely load up Westbrook if you're rolling out the Texans.

Ben Roethlisberger, JuJu Smith-Schuster, James Washington/Donte Moncrief ($16,900-$17,300) 

As soon as I opened DraftKings for the first time this week, this was the initial stack I gravitated toward -- and it's still my favorite as of today. We went over the whole JuJu thing earlier. So, if you made it this far and didn't read that, scroll back up and take 30 seconds to read it. The X factor in this stack is figuring out the third player you want to roll out with Roethlisberger and Smith-Schuster. I'm still torn between Washington and Moncrief, so chances are, I'm loading up two lineups -- one with each -- to get exposure to both. Washington had the splash play that people will remember, but Moncrief played more than 85 percent of the snaps and saw double-digit targets. This sets up as the classic Big Ben game -- 400 yards, 4 touchdowns and the Steelers get back on track after a thumping against the Pats.

Run It Back: Everyone was on Tyler Lockett a week ago, but the game script didn't set up to be in favor for him. The Seahawks were more than OK just handing the ball off to Chris Carson -- who I think will be ultra-owned again this week -- and peppered DK Metcalf. The injury designation next to Lockett paired with the semi-down game against Cincy might quell some of the ownership on him. So, if you're going to choose this game as your stack, I'd be sure to include Lockett, and if you want to split exposure, get some Metcalf in there, too.   

-- By Nathan Joyce

@nd_joyce